TAM → SAM → SOM, then four personas with willingness-to-pay bands.
Anchored against the parlour bundle hidden casket markup, not against the wholesale floor.
Two artefacts on one page. Market sizing decomposes the SG transparent-casket opportunity into TAM (every casket purchased in Singapore each year, valued at retail-equivalent), SAM (the casket-eligible events where a transparent DTC purchase is culturally and operationally addressable — honestly excludes Muslim shroud-burial cohort and religious-institution in-house caskets), and SOM (the Year-3 wedge a transparent fixed-price DTC brand can plausibly capture). The pricing strategy half profiles the four buyer personas, surfaces willingness-to-pay bands derived from the parlour-bundle hidden casket markup, and recommends the three tiers that map directly to the three published Passage SKUs (Serene S$499 / Tranquil S$999 / Eternal S$1,299). Cross-link to competitors, whitespace, design audit, the printable report, or the parent Passage site.
TAM → SAM → SOM
Bottom-up from Singstat / ICA death registrations, MOH death-cert flow, NEA After-Death Services, and Straits Times / CNA cost-of-dying coverage 2023–25. SAM honestly excludes Muslim shroud-burial cohort (~14%, MUIS rite is shroud-only), religious-institution in-house caskets (~8%), and welfare-pathway hardship cases (~3%). SOM grounded in transparent-pricing DTC penetration in adjacent SG categories at 36 months.
What the sizing means
The five conclusions Agent 3 (pricing) and Agent 4 (whitespace) downstream of this page must respect. Casket purchase is one-event-per-customer, the SAM caps at S$18M, Muslim shroud-burial exclusion is structural, and direct-cremation cohort is the highest-fit growth wedge.
Policies
SG bereavement regulation: NEA Mandai cremation slots, MUIS Muslim shroud-burial directive, MOH / ICA digital death registration, SFDA voluntary code, SCDF / NEA columbarium rules, PDPA bereavement-data handling, GST treatment, and Tripartite + PWM workforce posture. None mandate casket-line pricing transparency — that gap is the wedge.
Four personas with structured NBA arithmetic
Each persona's nba.monthly_sgd_equivalent represents the displaced spend for this one-event purchase — the casket line buried inside the traditional parlour bundle (~S$2,500 mid-point) or the alternative DTC option. The expected WTP must sit between 0.4× and 1.2× that anchor for the tier to be defensible.
Recommended pricing tiers
Three tiers map directly to the three published Passage SKUs: Serene S$499 (lead-gen / direct-cremation wedge), Tranquil S$999 (centre-of-bullseye for adult-child anti-pressure), Eternal S$1,299 (pre-arrangement + eco-values upper-stretch). PSG / EDG grants are not applicable to consumer casket purchases — effective price = list price.